Seasonal predictability of baroclinic wave activity

Seasonal predictability of baroclinic wave activity

Blog Article

Abstract Midlatitude baroclinic waves drive extratropical weather and climate variations, but their predictability beyond 2 weeks has been deemed low.Here we analyze a large ensemble of climate simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and demonstrate that seasonal variations of baroclinic wave activity (BWA) are potentially predictable.This potential seasonal 100% HUNDO MINT CACAO BAR predictability is denoted by robust BWA responses to SST forcings.To probe regional sources of the potential predictability, a regression analysis is applied to the SST-forced large ensemble simulations.By filtering out variability internal to the atmosphere and land, this analysis identifies both well-known and unfamiliar BWA responses to SST forcings across latitudes.

Finally, we confirm the model-indicated predictability by showing that an operational seasonal prediction system can leverage some of the identified SST-BWA relationships to achieve skillful predictions of BWA.Our findings help to extend long-range predictions of the Football - Protective - Girdles statistics of extratropical weather events and their impacts.